There will be no negotiations. How Russia circumvent sanctions, and who will force it to sit down with Ukraine

“The world has already introduced six packages of sanctions, but Russia finds a way around each: by itself or with the help of allied countries. The terrorist country continues to import food products, light industrial goods, and export energy carriers subject to sanctions and from which the world must refuse.” Opinion.


         On April 9, the ban on the entry of Russian and Belarusian trucks into the territory of the EU came into force. “Any motor vehicle from the Russian Federation is prohibited from transporting goods by road through the territory of the European Union, particularly by transit,” the document reads.

This also means that European goods in the Russian Federation should have decreased.

But Russia found a loophole to bypass the restrictions: now the head near the trucks is European, and the tail is Russian. Because the trailers are not subject to sanctions and, accordingly, can be loaded under the tie.

After crossing the Polish-Belarusian border, the Russian trailer is connected to the Belarusian or Russian “head,” and the products reach customers without restrictions.

But there is an even easier way — with the help of Kazakhstan, which is not subject to sanctions—no need to reinvent the wheel here. Kazakh trucks can cross all borders and receive what Russia orders freely.

Even those countries that supported or partially recognized the sanctions against Russia are helping. For example, in April this year, Germany exported 828.2 million euros worth of goods to the Russian Federation.

The Russian Federation and Turkey help because they apply only UN sanctions. Russian companies turn to Turkey for assistance in purchasing sanctioned goods: ready-made clothing, textiles, food products, and chemical industry goods. Turkish goods are delivered by planes because Turkey did not agree to close the airspace with the aggressor country.

European companies also remain in the Russian market. For example, the French group Bonduelle. In the 2021-2022 report, the company announced its mission to “feed Russians and neighboring countries” where products are supplied from Russia. But here, one can see not the noble task of the French but the fear of losing profit from Russia.

Not only products

Despite the sanctions on importing and transporting crude oil and some petroleum products from the Russian Federation, sales volumes of these goods have only increased. In some cases, up to the maximum values for all years.

Thus, in May, China increased crude oil imports from the Russian Federation by 55% year-on-year to a record level — Russia took first place in the supply of raw materials to the PRC, ahead of Saudi Arabia.

According to information for May, the import of Russian oil amounted to almost 8.42 million tons. That’s about 1.98 million barrels per day, up 25% from April’s 1.59 million barrels.

Italy followed the same path: exports in May amounted to about 450,000 barrels of oil per day. But also for whom – an oil refinery owned by the Russian Lukoil. Since February 24, Spain has exported 4.5 million barrels of crude oil worth about $509 million.

Russia generally does not feel the sanctions too much, as it has learned to bypass them. In addition, earns from it. Therefore, waiting for her to sit at the negotiating table is useless. According to analysts’ forecasts, by the end of the current year, the Russian Federation’s GDP loss will amount to only 11.3%, while Ukraine’s will amount to 45%. In our case, such an extensive number results from blocked ports.

How Russia receives money for energy carriers in wartime conditions

Despite the sanctions, the Russian economy is afloat because cash flows there even in euros (as Germany does).

This blood business is financed by every state that transfers money for gas and oil to Russia. By the way, Russia’s earnings can be tracked online. An electronic CREA account shows in real-time how much money is paid for Russian oil and gas. So, in 4 months, Russia earned 93 billion euros from the sale of energy carriers, 53 of which were from the EU.

Now Russia is demanding to pay for energy carriers in rubles to support its own economy. This year, to stabilize the economic situation, Russia plans to use more than 6.3 million rubles from the sale of oil and gas.

All countries that buy energy carriers from the aggressor countries finance the continuation of Russia’s war in Ukraine because they simultaneously finance its defense industry.

How to get out of this situation?

The countries will not give up enemy energy carriers instantly because no one is ready for such a quick transition to alternative energy sources. In addition, the amount of gas imported, for example, in Germany and Italy, did not decrease but also increased.

Funds for energy resources might not reach the aggressor state if the recommendations of the International Working Group on sanctions against Russia were to come into effect. In May of this year, the Yermak-McFaul expert group developed recommendations that refer to the storage of funds for energy carriers in a particular escrow account, and they will not go to the budget of Russia.

According to the recommendations, the funds were to be held in interim accounts until Russia met the international community’s demands. So the situation could be settled, but for now, Russia continues to make money on the blood of Ukrainians.

That is why she does not go to negotiations with Ukraine. And it will not go as long as there are loopholes where any sanctions can be bypassed. If the world adopts a dozen or a hundred more sanctions packages, Russia will not back down until it feels the promised effect. As long as it has goods from Europe and money for energy sources, the war will continue, in which Ukraine is Europe’s shield. A living shield that, sacrificing itself, protects Europe and the world. It’s time for the world to squeeze the Russian Federation economically and energetically!