Putin needs a weak Europe. What will the EU say in response?

The sixth month of the war. Russia has not yet achieved what it had planned. Moreover, it has already lost its leading position in the international arena. This applies to the energy and mining industry and the agricultural sector. Now Russia is determined to sway Europe to its side and force it to help the Russian Federation.

According to Bloomberg, Russia hopes that Europe will be tired of the war and that trade and economic relations with the aggressor country will be restored to an extent before February 24.

 How the war in Ukraine affects the Russian Federation

March 2022 saw a significant decline in mechanical engineering imports, which fell by 73.6% to EUR 165.8 million compared to March 2021, and chemical exports, which fell by 40.9% to EUR 158.7 million. Euro.

On the contrary, the development of exports from the Russian Federation increased. The income of the Russian Federation also increased due to the increase in the price of resources.

The situation with Germany is the most telling because the Germans imported almost the most oil and gas from the Russian Federation. In March 2022, imports increased by 77.7% to 4.4 billion euros compared to March 2021.

Crude oil and natural gas became the most important goods exported from Russia, with an increase in value of 56.5% to 2.4 billion euros. However, the volume of crude oil and natural gas exported from Russia in March 2022 fell by 27.8% compared to March 2021.

]Now Russia wants to return this primacy, because it is from the sale of energy resources that the state budget of the Russian Federation is filled, and therefore, the war in Ukraine is financed.

Putin hopes that he will be able to restore gas supplies to pre-war levels when winter comes. He said that people would feel even more expensive energy resources, would go to rallies, and force the authorities to take measures in favor of the Russian Federation.

Europe is reducing its dependence on the Russian Federation.

Despite reducing gas supplies to the EU, Europe does not stop filling its gas storage. According to Gas Infrastructure Europe (GIE), on August 2, underground storage facilities in Europe were supplied by an average of 70.54%.

German warehouses are currently 75% ready for the heating season, French – 80% (another 20% are planned to be prepared by November 1), and Polish – 100%.

In Europe, they understand that even these reserves will last until March, so they open up coal mines and sign new gas contracts, cutting off all relations with the terrorist country.

Germany plans to resume work on the MidCat Mediterranean gas corridor project, connecting the Iberian Peninsula with Central Europe.

The country abandoned it three years ago, considering it unprofitable, but considering the prices that Europe still pays the Russian Federation for gas, almost $2,000 per 1,000 cubic meters of gas, although at the beginning of June, the cost did not exceed $900.

Such a rapid price increase is one of the components of Putin’s plan to subjugate Europe. That is why the supply of blue fuel is also being reduced in the hope that Europe will weaken sanctions or cancel them altogether.

What should governments do to eliminate tension in society?

First, it is worth realizing that these are temporary measures – both with heat and with inflation, which Europeans were so afraid of and were so scared of.

Secondly, resuming the import of Russian oil and gas will not improve the situation of people in any way (unless it fills the budget of the Russian Federation).

Thirdly, importing Russian energy resources does not equal peace in Europe. Putin’s actions are difficult to predict for the most experienced political scientists, intelligence officers, etc. This was felt when Russia stopped gas supply to Germany through the Nord Stream-1, allegedly due to “planned prevention.”

Fear of Putin kills people. But it must be fought in both an economic and a social sense:

Gain gas and oil independence;

The war makes preparing people that currently return to everyday life impossible.

And most importantly – because of Russia, not because of Ukraine.