If there is no titanium in Iran, there will be no martyrs flying in the sky of Ukraine.
The Armed Forces shoot down at least 10 Iranian kamikaze drones every day. Instead, Iran first categorically denied the delivery of the Shahed-136 and now disagrees with the number of drones delivered.
The country’s authorities emphasize that they supplied the Russian Federation with kamikaze drones even before the start of the full-scale invasion, and only in small quantities. This should have prompted the idea that hums in the Russian Federation will soon run out and, therefore, will not fly in the Ukrainian sky.
There is only a but. The Iranian authorities lie about the number of drones and sometimes even – about the non-use of the Shahids by the Russian Federation. I will explain everything step by step.
For the first time, a kamikaze drone from the Russian Federation was launched on September 13 this year over Kupyansk. And only from that date to November 1, the Armed Forces shot down more than 300 of the 400 launched Shahed-136s, or as the Russian troops call them, Geran-2s.
About a hundred – i.e., approximately 25% of the total number released – hit Ukrainian settlements and left Ukrainians without electricity, heat, and communications. And most importantly, they kill people.
In total, Russia had 2,500 Shaheds in its arsenal. 400 (1/6 of the total) have already flown into the air, so it could be assumed that the Shahed-136 should gradually run out, especially if you believe Iran’s statements that the state does not supply Russia with Shaheds. Because where is the UAV, and where is Geran-2?
This is probably exactly what Iran was counting on: that the world community would not guess the origin of the kamikaze drones, and therefore Russia would continue to cooperate with Iran.
That was until the end of last month. On October 17, the Ministry of Foreign Affairs officially accused Iran of complicity in the aggression against Ukraine and called Tehran to stop supplying Russia with any weapons immediately.
Otherwise, Iran and its leadership will bear the most severe responsibility, particularly within the framework of international legal proceedings regarding Russia’s crimes against Ukraine.
What logically should have happened next? Official Iran confirms or denies the armed assistance of the Russian Federation but, under any condition, stops cooperation with the Russian Federation.
At least for the duration of the war, so as not to attract new sanctions and not to receive the status of a world exile and restrictions on world cooperation in the wake of the Russian Federation. Unless with Russia.
But it seems that the official Tehran is happy with the last scene. Because how else to explain that the Russian Federation ordered a new batch of drones on November 2, and three days later, on November 5, as reported by BILD, a plane of the sanctioned Poua Air, which delivers prohibited goods from Iran, landed at Vnukovo airport.
The Main Directorate of Intelligence of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine also reported on the planned supply in early November. And do you know what this speed of delivery indicates? Russia agreed and planned the supply of Shahed-136 with Iran in advance and continues to do so for the next batch of Shaheds.
Although the Main Directorate of Intelligence has not yet confirmed this information, there is reason to believe that these are Shahid: if not the whole party, then part of it.
Russia has already paid 140 million euros for the new cargo in cash and Western weapons captured in Ukraine. These are considerable funds for the Russian Federation but even more significant risks for Iran.
Therefore, in addition to funds, Russia should promise Iran what it can, if not reduce the pressure of sanctions, then give a bonus that will temporarily balance Iran’s position on the world market, even despite the sanctions.
It is possible that Russia promised Iran cover on international platforms. In particular, in the UN Security Council, where the Kremlin still uses the right of veto inherited from the USSR, it can therefore block statements and investigations of the United Nations—most of all – concerning the use of Iranian drones.
Russia knows Iran violates the UN Security Council resolution by not coordinating its actions with the Security Council. And both partner parties are aware that kamikaze drones are prohibited, as their flight range exceeds 300 km.
However, Russia’s permanent representative at the UN, Vasyl Nebenzia, says that the information about drones is fake. Therefore, the investigation of their application is pointless. And this means that Iran is under the protectorate of the Russian Federation.
The state remains almost the main figure on the chessboard. Against which even the strong of this world cannot go. Because a checker does not beat a checker until it becomes a checker itself.
Taking advantage of the position of the Russian Federation, Iran can even turn to the Russian Federation for help in developing nuclear weapons.
So far, there is no official information that Russia has taken the conciliatory side because the Kremlin has long been against Tehran’s use of nuclear weapons. Blackmail with drones can sway Iran to its side. President Zelensky agrees.
But time will tell whether it will come to that. But there is something that has already been established between the two countries.
Trade and economic relations.
Given the sanctions, the countries are in strict isolation so that they can trade with each other and with countries supporting the Moscow and Tehran regime. Therefore, governments are practically interdependent. And this is where the answer to how to stop this cooperation lies.
Prohibit Iran from using titanium and titanium-containing components for kamikaze drones.
Is titanium a raw material used in the body to make the drone as light as possible, twice as strong as iron, and therefore less vulnerable to impacts?
On October 20, the EU finally approved sanctions against Iran for supplying Shaheds to Russia, the concept and details of which were primarily stolen from the USA.
But as Iran’s practice and actions show, restrictions have no effect. Therefore, it is crucial to move further toward banning drones.
The following sanctions on Iran should be on titanium. And not only their introduction but also control over compliance. To avoid a repeat of the scenario between Iran and China,, even despite the Iranian sanctions, the supply of oil was established.
There are no titanium deposits in Iran, so Tehran imports titanium concentrate. Even from Ukraine: at least, that was the case before the full-scale invasion of the Russian Federation into Ukraine.
It is necessary to squeeze Iran as much as possible so that the construction of kamikaze drones is unprofitable and dangerous. The sword of Damocles should hang over Iran, which will remind us that in case of the export of titanium, even from now-friendly Russia, it can turn into total isolation from the civilized world.
The consequences should be so substantial that the money received for the drones is nothing compared to the results of selling them. Only then will fewer enemy drones fly into Ukraine.